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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down extended down throughout the session. But it was an “inside day,” contained within the prior session’s range. Combined with its downward bias, the setup tends to resolve bullishly. The gap outstanding back up to Wednesday’s close should help to attract price higher.

Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Having failed to close under 1.3020 Wednesday to accelerate the decline’s pace, instead ranging narrowly around it, Thursday’s session became vulnerable to a bounce. The open gapped up and the entire session trended higher, but remained within Wednesday’s range to form an “inside day.” An upward biased inside day tends to resolve bearishly.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Fresh lows before Thursday’s open attacked 1636.00. Although a later rally tested 1667.00, closing under 1661.00 kept alive the decline’s momentum, and the likelihood for resolving down to resume the decline.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s recovery attempt went out testing Wednesday’s gap down as resistance. It is natural resistance, which should hold any early testing of 33.00 resistance Friday morning in order to resolve down into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight lows down to 135-18 were recovering slightly into Thursday’s open, but not enough to avoid gapping down. The gap down was quickly recovered back into positive territory, but only back into positive territory, as much of the session only ranged narrowly around unchanged into the close. There remains potential down to 134-10 so long as 137-10 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) News Thursday about releasing SPR triggered a $2 spike down to 103.78. It was recovered entirely when the news was questioned. The break’s  momentum would remain intact so long as 104.85-105.15 wasn’t recovered through the close — it was still being tested, so initial weakness at Friday’s open would be credible for extending down into the weekend.

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