Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond continued to weaken from last week’s 30-year Treasury auction, hurt by the stock market’s rally attracting risk capital from safe havens. Either its drop is fast-approaching significant support, or Tuesday will cut short its decline altogether.
Dollar Basket Apr Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The pullback from last week’s 81.05 high extended further Monday to test 79.60. This was also the last pullback’s low one week earlier on the way to 81.05. Considering the current pullback’s origin was a bias-downward inside day, and also considering that RSIs are oversold, this test of 79.60‘s prior low should react up sharply if the rally still has potential to resume.
Eurodollar Apr Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s rally to 1.3272 extended the rally from last week’s 1.3010 lows. While there is room for extending up to 1.3290 before a bigger rally would become likely, the decline is free to resume at any time.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of 1661.00 had reacted back down to 1640.00. Friday’s rally to 1661.00 had held its resistance. Neither stopped Monday’s session from eventually firming to fresh highs at 1670.00. Now almost any initial weakness would be likely to test 1650.00, whose break through the close would resume the decline targeting new lows.
Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Rather than close under 32.30 to resume the decline, Monday’s flat open eventually surged to test 33.00. Now closing under 32.65 would signal a new downleg underway, confirmed under 32.30.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s open did not immediately resume the decline, but its overnight test of 137-00 and the open’s gap up were quickly rejected. Almost the entire session trended down to fresh lows at 135-05.Now 134-10 remains in-play so long as bounces hold 135-16 as resistance. Closing above 135-26 would target 137-10.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s last-minute $1 surge to 107.24 extended higher immediately into Monday’s open, for another $1 gain testing 108.24. The rally still seems premature, but that might only encourage an aggressive reaction down from ultimately testing 111.00-111.75, which are in-play so long as pullbacks hold 106.30 as support.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) An initial dip Monday reacted up sharply from 2.28 to a fresh high at 2.39. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a bigger rally underway, initially targeting 2.51.
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