Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond finally firmed for an entire session, and not just by a little. The recent probes of fresh lows and popping back up — then repeating the pattern — has suggested that sellers were chipping away at support. Wednesday’s unanswered buying spree now adds a timing element for resuming the decline Thursday, or else rallying sharply… Did someone say, “Jobless Claims”?
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s high only touched Tuesday’s 80.07 opening gap before ranging sideways narrowly into the close. This impatient selling reflects pessimism that suggests a bigger rally leg remains likely, triggered above 80.10.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The gap to Tuesday’s 1.3181 opening print fulfilled its role of attracting price back down to it after Tuesday’s bounce back to 1.3260. And an overnight rally to 1.3292 touched the interim bounce limit. Closing under 1.3145 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1.3090, and targeting new lows under 1.3015.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s bounce held a test of 1661.00 resistance before settling back to test 1650.00 as support. Closing under 1646.50 should launch a downleg to new lows.
Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s inside day was not biased in either direction. So long as 32.30 continues to hold as resistance, the decline’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s gap up firmed throughout the day to 136-28, no longer ranging around 135-16. The gap up helps to separate the firming from being a false break higher. But a second consecutive higher close Thursday is needed to avoid resuming the decline to 134-10.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s break back under 107.70 (basis May, a 50-cent premium to Apr) did not extend down Wednesday. But neither was it recovered back up to 107.70. Although a new downleg may not yet be underway Thursday, simply closing again under 107.70 should marginalize buyers. Otherwise, a higher close would put back into play the potential for testing 111.50.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) More narrow ranging around 2.32 Wednesday still firmed into the close. Thursday’s EIA report has an opportunity to launch a rally, confirmed by closing above 2.42.
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