Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight As was suspected, Gold’s heavy selling into Thursday’s fresh lows proved to be a trap. Friday’s open gapped up above prior lows and extended back to prior highs. If Friday was an Island, then this bounce, too, shall pass.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down tested the two-week old low around 79.50, which held through the close. Meanwhile, the close was also still testing Monday’s low as support. Closing above 80.10 would signal the decline had ended, but the pullback could extend down otherwise.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap up above Thursday’s highs extended to fresh highs for the week at 1.3290 resistance. It was actually a pullback from 1.3300 overnight highs, and it was under Tuesday’s highs. In other words, it was the upper-end of the range, and not a breakout. But 1.3215 must break lower to signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1.3160.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s gap down under the week-long 1640.00 support had extended to 1627.00. But the morning’s 1640.50 high was recovered into the close. Combined with spending the entire session in negative territory suggested that an Island Reversal had formed. In fact, Friday’s open gapped up above 1646.00 and extended back to 1661.00 resistance. Event the 1666.00 gap back to Monday’s close was filled. Filling the gap neutralizes its attraction above, but the corrective bounce could still extend to 1691.00 so long as 1650.00 holds as support.
Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Thursday and trending down to a new low confirmed a downleg is in-play. Friday’s gap up within Thursday’s range does not invalidate Thursday’s signal. Holding a test of 32.30 resistance allows the decline to resume at any time. The gap back to Monday’s 33.00 close may be filled first.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s shallow bounce gapped up Friday and extended higher to 138-04. The bounce has room up to 138-10 before it must reverse down to new lows at 134-10, or else extend higher to 139-05.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s $3 surge up to 108.25 quickly settled back under the relevant 107.70 resistance. Closing back under 105.75-106.15 would trigger a new downleg targeting at least 101.30. A new rally leg targeting 111.75 must first recover 107.75.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Rally potential had been relying upon surging above 2.32 resistance. It had been probed repeatedly, but its reactions were never productive and gained no traction. Friday was the most serious reaction to 2.32 resistance. There is otherwise no active signal.
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