Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold fulfilled its corrective bounce target and reacted down meaningfully. Currencies had already reacted from their new extremes overnight. Are they all preparing to reverse their recent moves, or just preparing to extend them?
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Potential to 78.87 was nearly fulfilled by Monday night’s blip-down to 78.93. Tuesday’s intraday action only ranged narrowly around unchanged. The 78.93 objective may yet be retested, unless there were first a close above 79.55 to signal momentum reversing up.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s action put into play potential for extending the rally to 1.3360 and 1.3400. An overnight blip-up to 1.3390 was retraced before the open, and never retested intraday. Its reaction down never extended, as Tuesday’s session ranged narrowly around unchanged. The overnight high’s retest up to 1.3400 remains possible, but back under 1.3285 would signal momentum already reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1691.00 corrective bounce target from Thursday’s Island reversal pattern was tested Tuesday up to 1697.00. Its reaction down to 1679.50 traded the afternoon essentially unchanged. Closing under 1676.00 would signal momentum reversing down to at least retest the Island’s lows under 1640.00. There is otherwise potential for extending the rally to 1712.00.
Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s bounce had stopped suspiciously short of filling the gap back to last Monday’s 33.00 close, despite having plenty of time intraday. Tuesday’s gap up to it prior high above 33.00 confirmed. But the decline won’t yet resume without first closing back under 32.25.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s recovery from fresh session lows resumed potential for extending the bounce to 138-10. It was tested Tuesday by 3 ticks. Closing under 137-18 would now signal momentum starting to reverse down, confirmed under 137-04. If the bounce were to extend any higher, then it should begin by surging aggressively from Tuesday’s close.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday morning’s $3 surge has yet to extend any higher, as price action since then continued ranging narrowly between 106.80-107.70. Closing any higher would be credible for resuming the rally.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Last week’s failure to recover 2.32 resolved Tuesday in a probe of fresh lows down to 2.18. Any potential to form a bottom here — which there is — is premature.
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