Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond had been eking higher for a couple of session, but not really extending or reacting down. Friday’s slightly higher high was no exception. Then the weekend’s illiquidity started getting exponentially closer, helping to trigger a 1-point dive. Has its corrective bounce ended?
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism” paid quite a price Friday by gapping down to new lows at 78.87. The entire session developed in negative territory, under prior lows. Unless 79.25 were recovered Monday, the drop could extend to 78.50 before bottoming.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s reaction to Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was a gap up to probe prior highs up to 1.3383. The session essentially ranged around the 1.3350 prior high, developing exclusively in positive territory, almost qualifying as “ineffectual optimism.” But a bearish resolution depends upon quickly breaking back under 1.3294 at Monday’s open, or else the rally would next target 1.3425.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s closing test of 1657.50 extended overnight above its 1661.00 confirmation so much that Friday’s opening gap up quickly tested 1672.00. A pullback to 1661.00 was recovered to retest 1672.00. The rally could extend to 1688.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 1666.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The likely bounce to 32.50 was resolved immediately at Friday’s gap up that also tested 32.62. An intraday dip recovered to retest 32.50. Potential to 32.70 remains alive so long as pullbacks now hold 32.30 as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open firmed to 139-05, which was consolidated through the noon hour back to 138-26. Then a steep reaction down triggered the 137-28 sell signal. So long as 138-08 is not recovered, the break is targeting at least 136-12, whose break would target 135-26 and 134-28 and lower.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s bounce into 104.35 resistance reacted down sharply to 102.90 support. That was barely positive territory, but almost any immediate strength Monday would be credible for extending higher. Otherwise, any immediate weakness probably needs to be a gap down in order to launch a new downleg.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s plunge extended to new lows testing 2.10 Friday. This is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s price action on Monday mornings, making fresh lows likely.
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