Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s intraday recovery from testing Friday’s low was not in itself remarkable. What made the reaction stunning was its $3 bounce back to Wednesday’s close. That was suspected for being a false break, so rejecting it would be very bullish for higher Crude Oil prices. Yay.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down never extended lower intraday. Monday’s initial firming stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 79.35 close. But the morning’s strength did make a subsequent dip relevant, neutralizing the attraction below by filling the gap back to Friday’s 78.99 open. A lower close would be less credible for extending down.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” inhibited extending higher Monday. It even encouraged a deeper pullback to 1.3285. But it did not prevent recovering the morning’s dip back up to and through 1.3333. A lower close would be more capable of launching a new downleg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The corrective bounce targeting a test of the 1687.00-1688.50 gap was tested up to 1685.40 Monday. Its test remains in-play so long as pullbacks hold any test of 1678.50 as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s opening surge probed last week’s highs above 33.00. Unless rejected by closing back under 32.20-32.55, the bounce could extend next up to 34.00 and 34.50.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s close under the 137-28 sell signal was rejected immediately by Monday’s gap up above it. Extending up to 138-22 proved unsustainable when the entire follow-through was retraced back down to the 137-28 open. Almost any initial weakness Tuesday would qualify as a sell signal. There is otherwise no buy signal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Breaking back to 102.90 support Friday did extend down initially Monday. Gapping down was required to launch a new downleg. But Monday’s opening dip was only slightly weaker. And it was recovered from 102.06 up to fresh highs testing 105.50. No further dip is required before rallying, but a new downleg would not be triggered without closing under 103.60.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Monday’s opening weakness was shallow. And the morning’s basing launched a recovery back to the two prior sessions’ 2.15 “higher prior lows.” That’s not a buy signal, but recovering from another dip Tuesday to fresh highs above 2.20 would be very bullish for near-term follow-through.
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