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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold jumped on fundamentals from India. But a lot of buying pressure was expended while fulfilling its bounce target. Other metals did not participate in the rally.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s drop back to 79.85 held Wednesday’s lows as support. The rally would resume above 80.05, preferably without first dipping further down to 79.60-79.70.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday ultimately bounced, almost filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 1.3145 close. Back under 1.3115 would suggest the downleg had resumed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1640.50 bounce target was probed by $8 Sunday night. Its reaction held 1637.00 before recovering back to 1650.00. Then 1637.00 held another test. Almost any further break under 1637.00 would resume the decline. Otherwise, the bounce could extend next up to 1657.00-1661.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 32.05 bounce limit was tested Sunday night. A drop from to 31.31 managed to close back above 31.45 to avoid signaling the decline had resumed. Closing above 31.75 would target 32.30, but there is no other bullish pattern.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A dip pierced 137-28 by 2 only ticks before Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction spiked up 2 points, and eventually 3, touching 140-26 intraday Monday. This probe into 140-22/140-29 resistance held through the close. A pullback has room down to 137-16/137-26 before signaling that momentum is reversing back down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The bounce did not extend higher than , let alone to 104.70, which was put into play just for having recovered 102.25. Fresh lows Monday tested 100.81, but then recovered to close back above 102.25. Now the gap back up to Friday’s 103.25 close should attract price up to 104.70.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) A new low Sunday night under 2.08 down to 2.06 wasn’t repeated intraday Monday. Neither was it rejected, still requiring a close above 2.13 to target at least 2.31. But now an intraday test of 2.06 would help to assure that no unfinished business below remained outstanding.

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