Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold followed one big target by surging sharply to its next. But now a shallow dip is unlikely to precede higher highs, and almost any delay in extending higher would be bearish.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The delay in resuming the rally kept the door open to fresh lows. Thursday’s gap down extended back to prior support at 79.35. A lower low must hold 79.25 to avoid putting into play new lows under 78.90. Closing above 79.70 would signal a new upleg underway.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Not yet rejecting Wednesday’s test of prior highs allowed Thursday to rally even higher. The gap back to last Tuesday’s 1.3220 close was barely filled, and not rejected, suggesting a higher high will also test 1.3285. Otherwise, closing under 1.3145 would signal a new downleg underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The first breakout attempt from consolidating narrowly around the 1661.00 target was going to be the false breakout. And it was down. Thursday extended the rally sharply higher and fill the gap back to last Tuesday’s 1672.00 close. Higher highs tested 1681.00, presumably on the way to 1688.00 so long as there is no hesitation.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s test of 31.45 support launched another rally leg through 32.30, which must now hold as support to maintain potential to 32.90-33.00.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite surging in Tuesday’s flight-to-safety, price was unaffected by Thursday morning’s stock market rally. Apparently optimism was high ahead of the day’s auction. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction left outstanding the gap back to 141-12, whose attraction helped it recover from 140-01 back to unchanged around 140-24. Stocks continued rallying, and bonds continued avoiding a sell-off, further suggesting the 141-12 gap intends being filled, one way or another. Stock market sell-off, perhaps?
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The 104.70 bounce target was attacked to within 50 cents Thursday. Its reaction down held 103.00-103.25 to maintain the bounce’s momentum.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Price action under $2 got very choppy, and unstable, but did not extend the decline any further. That is not a buy signal, but a bigger intraday spike up — whether or not maintained — would suggest a bigger was forming.
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