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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | April 20, 2012 - 2:44 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro popped up more aggressively than was expected, but tested its objectives nonetheless. Its next step should be a big one — whether up, or down.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The likely test of 79.50 was actually a gap down to 79.50, that then extended much lower intraday, to within 7 cents of the 79.15 objective. Its test is likely so long as bounces now hold 79.50.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Three consecutive sessions absorbed selling pressure and returned to resistance. This all but required rewarding buyers by testing the next higher resistance at 1.3195. Another gap was filled up to 1.3220. Closing under 1.3185 would signal the bounce had ended. Otherwise, its next higher resistance is 1.3280.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s “inside day” should confirm that despite two lows this week each producing a $23 intraday rally, new sponsorship for a rally is not being attracted.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Closing Friday between 31.45-31.75 prevented a signal from triggering. The range-bound pattern still has room intraday up to 32.30 and down to 31.30 before chipping away entirely at resistance or support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s limited gains were a little shallow considering the broader stock market weakness. So, Friday’s stock market strength retraced Thursday’s gains, and then some. But session losses were limited into the close. Signals remain unchanged.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap up to probe above 104.70, further confirming that 102.25 will either hold as support to launch a new rally leg, or else break lower to fresh lows. Now 103.35 should hold as support to maintain the recovery’s potential — or at least be recovered immediately at Monday’s open.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) A shallow bounce Friday did not reject Thursday’s new lows. The next opportunity to signal a bottom forming can not come until Monday’s close.

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Posted in Daily Spot