Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold plunged and Natural Gas surged, each confirming expectations that recent near-term extremes had formed. But while Gold had signaled its momentum was reversing down, Natural Gas left had signaled only that its drop was losing sponsorship. That seems to have changed… Is it time to buy UNG?
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up pierced Thursday’s 79.75 close long enough to fill the gap that Friday’s open had created. Closing above 79.75 would signal an actual rally leg underway.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday fulfilled and exceeded the 1.3299 bounce objective. Monday rejected it by gapping back down to Thursday’s 1.3135 close, which the session ranged around. Actually resuming the decline requires closing under Monday’s 1.3105 low.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) As if any further confirmation was needed that bottom fishers weren’t biting, Monday’s open gapped down $19 to probe under 1624.00. The intraday session-long bounce from there tested higher prior lows above 1638.00, leaving the open’s gap outstanding to attract price back into the downleg.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Overnight action simply slid to fresh lows at 30.45. The pattern that launched the break was ranging too narrowly to predict its resolution, but a close under 30.40 would target 29.55 and then 28.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) There has been no buy signal while awaiting a sell signal to trigger. That hasn’t prevented extending higher, and falling stocks has helped. Fresh highs gapped up to new highs at 142-24 and tested 143-04 intraday. Closing above 142-28 would get a benefit of the doubt for launching a new rally leg. Otherwise, now closing under 142-10 would target 141-06 and lower.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Another probe under 102.75 (102.25 basis May), it was recovered yet again by closing above 103.00. Now closing above 103.85-104.15 would target 107.75 and potentially much higher.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Ongoing efforts to trend below 1.98 resumed abrubptly Thursday. No sell signal was triggered, and no consecutive lower close Friday confirmed. Monday exploited this by recovering gradually back above last Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs to 2.01. Momentum has reversed up so long as 1.98 holds as support… UNG has also bottomed by closing above 14.95, so long as 14.75 holds tests as support, targeting 17.85 and 20.00.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…