Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s much anticipated breakout finally appeared Tuesday. So much accumulation having preceded it, almost any hesitation in extending higher would raise a caution flag.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down back to Friday’s lows immediately fulfilled Monday’s “ineffectual optimism” that I described here yesterday. Contact me for any help understanding the setup. The reaction to ISM’s surprise recovered back through Monday’s highs, and a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would signal a much bigger upleg underway.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was fulfilled immediately Tuesday by gapping up to probe fresh highs. But no buy signal triggered. And ISM’s surprise triggered a spike back down to Monday’s lows. Back under 1.3220 would likely test 1.3185, whose break is still needed to trigger any bigger downleg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s fresh highs up to 1672.30 confirmed suspicions that Monday’s spike down to 1645.10 wasn’t bearish. But the next reaction down barely held 1657.00, and its recovery back above 1661.00 was sluggish. The next higher objective at 1688.50 remains in-play, but closing under 1657.00 would still be bearish.
Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap up immediately rejected Monday’s close just under 31.05. But the gap back to Friday’s 31.33 close held as resistance. And Tuesday’s close fell back under 31.05. Immediate strength Wednesday would again be credible for extending higher to 32.30 — now, perhaps, more so — but closing under 30.65 would resume the bigger downleg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s weaker open initially probed Monday’s 143-02 highs. Not exactly “initial weakness,” but ISM’s surprise sent bonds down to and through 142-10 anyway. A second consecutive lower under 142-10 would confirm a much larger downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s open had already firmed up to fresh highs at the 105.25 buy signal. ISM’s surprise triggered a surge that eventually tested 106.40. Now a second consecutive higher close would confirm 112.00 in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Higher highs overnight at 2.36 were not rejected Tuesday, already a bullish factor for this pattern. Fresh highs were eventually probed, putting into play 2.44 and 2.50, so long as 2.30 were to hold any test as support.
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