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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 9, 2012 - 3:33 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s long-outstanding target was met at Wednesday’s gap down. Can currencies continue their recent runs while Gold retraces?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” would be bearish if not resolved higher immediately. Wednesday’s open did gap up slightly above Tuesday’s 80.08 high and extended to fresh highs at 80.41. Now extending the trend requires holding 79.80 as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s close was reacting down from probing into Sunday night’s 1.2965-1.2990 opening range as resistance. The open wasn’t much lower than that, so the interim intraday dip to fresh lows may have been absorbed. Gapping up Thursday above 1.2990 would be credible for testing 1.3040 before resuming the decline. The trend otherwise remains down and targeting a test 1.2850.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s open immediately tested the 1584.00 target down to 1578.00, then bounced back to 1596.00. Quickly filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close at 1604.50 would be likely to resume the decline. Otherwise, closing above 1610.50 would target 1630.50.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Wednesday tested new lows at 28.70. The balance of the session rallied, but never recovered positive territory. The open’s 28.65 gap must be retested, even if 30.00 resistance were tested first.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tumbling stocks + sovereign credibility = bond rally. So, Wednesday’s open gapped up and probed a new high at 145-08. Its complete retracement into negative territory at 144-06 held Tuesday’s late low as support. Under 143-30 would trigger a deeper pullback to 142-30, but not necessarily a downleg.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday had already fulfilled the requirement to repeat Sunday night’s test of 95.50. Wednesday’s fresh low was redundant. Closing above 97.45 would target 100.75, and possibly 104.00. Any further delay to recovering would be likely to extend down to 91.85.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The pattern’s 2.50 target was met Wednesday. Extending the rally to 2.68 depends upon holding any test of 2.40 as support.

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Posted in Daily Spot