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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 10, 2012 - 3:48 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s highlight was its lack of highlights. Even the long bond’s drop on Claims and recovery on Auction finished the session almost unchanged. Calm before the storms?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Narrow, lifeless “ranging” throughout Thursday did serve at least one bullish purpose, by not immediately rejecting Wednesday’s gap up to new highs.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s session picked an interesting price to flatline at, which was the 1.2955 target area. It was already tested Wednesday, so it may not extend down immediately, but a bounce should fail.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dip held the drop’s 1584.00 target and then rallied Thursday $6 above Wednesday’s high to 1602.00. Two sessions of testing support allows a bigger bounce — like back up to 1610.50 — before trying to resume the decline.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s high barely filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s 29.44 close, but the session’s narrow range still allows a retest of 30.00 before trying to resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping down on Jobless Claims and extending lower was consolidated back up to 143-30. A fresh low at 143-18 was saved by the afternoon’s auction results, triggering a recovery to within 2 ticks of Wednesday’s 144-14 close. That last bit of pessimism maintained a session of “ineffectual pessimism,” that maintains the potential for filling the gap back up to 145-03 open.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s range fluctuated narrowly around unchanged from Wednesday’s close. This delay in rejecting Wednesday’s redundant retest of 95.50 all but requires another fresh low.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 2.40 pullback limit was tested to within 1-2 cents. The EIA report triggered a probe back above the rally’s 2.50 target by 1-2 cents.Now pullbacks must hold 2.44 for the rally to extend any higher.

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Posted in Daily Spot