Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Having met a major target overnight, yesterday’s Gold close suggested its plunge could be within hours of ending. Stretching the rubber band any tighter would have broken it. Instead, the pattern snapped back up sharply, retracing all of the prior three days’ losses. One day does not a bottom make, so any slowdown in its recovery could be a problem.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Potential to 82.00 remained alive by pullbacks holding 81.30. But a probe above Wednesday’s 81.75 high was retraced, threatening the rally’s momentum. Now closing under 81.30 would signal momentum reversing down.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The long-outstanding potential to 1.2725 has not lost its influence despite having been tested already Wednesday. Fresh intraday lows are continually retraced to test 1.2725 as resistance. There is no unfinished business below — opening gaps have been filled already — but the ranging is neutralizing the drop’s recent oversold condition to allow another downleg to begin.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1526.50 target was never retested intraday after touching it before Wednesday’s open. And 1537.00‘s recovery didn’t wait for the close before extending sharply higher to nearly 1580.00 Thursday. The bounce’s peak should be a test of the prior downleg’s 1584.50 target, or else its recovery would target 1611.00.
Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” that narrowly missed filling a gap above was helpful to attract price higher Thursday. Its gap up above 27.50 extended up to 28.30. The close was still testing 28.00, whose recovery would have put into play 28.65 and 29.00. Regardless, a test of 26.75-27.00 is needed before a durable rally can be signaled.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 147-08/147-10 target was finally tested, probing it by 1 point. A pullback has room down to 147-22 and 147-14 to maintain this upleg’s momentum. A durable downleg is unlikely before at least retesting Thursday’s high from below. But closing under 146-28 would be vulnerable to a much more substantial decline.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The drop’s 91.75 target still requires being tested intraday. So Thursday’s bounce to 93.88 was reversed into negative territory. But only to within 35-cents of 91.75. Reacting from its test to close back above 94.00 would seal a bottom.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thurdsay’s dip back to the rally’s 2.50 target held, reacting back up, but closing slightly negative on the day. This latest upleg remains suspicious.
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