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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 25, 2012 - 3:36 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro attracted its share of selling pressure ahead of the two-day illiquidity, and ahead of growing expectations for Greece’s exit. But there was no runaway selling as the market stared each other down into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) 82.25 held a test as support overnight and through Friday’s open to maintain potential for extending the rally to its 82.70 target. The balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Thursday’s 82.50 high, so 82.25 must still hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Overnight strength essentially held 1.2550 as resistance, keeping alive the drop’s momentum. A fresh low under 1.2500 was retraced back to unchanged where most of the session ranged narrowly. But the drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2550 is not recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday afternoon’s pullback did not extend down any lower than 1550.70. But that wasn’t enough to resume the decline, allowing a reaction up to 1570.00-1573.00. A signal should be generated sometime Monday.

Silver Jun Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s inside day did not extend above 27.85-28.11, which would have reversed momentum up. The lack of sponsorship on a Friday has robbed the pattern of any near-term predictability.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s narrow ranging did not affect any previous forming patterns, so there remains no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s inside day did not affect any existing patterns, so the 86.00 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s narrow range — especially against the background of its weekly EIA report — had made the rally likelier to correct down before extending up. Friday’s open did break immediately under 2.70 (2.62 basis Jun) on the way to 2.61. Another low at 2.52 should end the correction so the rally can resume uninhibited.

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Posted in Daily Spot