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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 31, 2012 - 3:36 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies recovered Thursday from initially correcting Wednesday’s breakouts, closing at new trend extremes to confirm their momentum remains intact. Immediate follow-through isn’t required, but Thursday’s intraday extremes should not prove to be trend extremes.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite gapping down Thursday, the session recovered to close at new relative highs. Its second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout. While only 83.45 is targeted, breaking it could signal a much steeper rally is underway into and out of the weekend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Despite gapping up Thursday, the session reversed down to close at new relative lows. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the break is now confirmed to be targeting 1.2255.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing back under 1561.00 Thursday would have resumed the decline. Its support was probed, but only to launch a retest of Wednesday’s 1572.00 area highs. The intraday volatility has continued to avoid triggering any parameter through a close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s dip held a retest of 27.50 and bounced back to unchanged levels around 28.00. But the balance of the session ranged sideways, avoiding a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A shallower pullback overnight to 148-18 recovered to fresh highs Thursday at 150-26. Potential up to 151-14 (152-00 basis Jun) remains alive so long as pullbacks hold 149-06.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The decline’s 86.00 target was met at Thursday’s 85.86 low. A steep reaction up to 87.64 was retraced back down toward 86.00. A retest of 86.00 is likely, but it is also likely to hold near-term.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s modest gap down nevertheless probed fresh pullback lows at 2.38. A reaction up to 2.50 ways retraced back to unchanged levels — and only back to unchanged levels, as sellers did not gain traction for their effort. Now any close above 2.50 would target 2.66 and 2.76.

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Posted in Daily Spot