Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Stock markets don’t decline in a vacuum. Crude Oil plunged through my target that was met Thursday, while the long bond surged to probe its target. And currencies… well… just what did currencies do?
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 83.45 target was probed up to 83.67 before reversing down into negative territory to 82.70. The open’s gap back up to 83.39 remains outstanding and requires being filled, which will inhibit any further sell-off attempt. There also remains outstanding a third higher close above 83.14. A top is unlikely.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh lows attacked the 1.2255 target down to 1.2288. A reversal into positive territory tested 1.2462 and remained in positive territory. But the open’s gap down to 1.2324 requires being filled, which will undermine any recovery attempt, if not also keep alive the decline.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) One more test of 1561.00 down to 1545.50 was recovered Friday on the Employment Situation report to quickly probe above 1572.00 to 1611.00 and 1632.00. The rally should also visit 1635.00-1642.00 so long as 1611.00 now holds as support. But a break under 1597.00 is needed to signal momentum reversing down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A spike down to 27.20 was reversed back up to prior highs attacking 28.70. Almost any follow-through Monday would target 30.00-30.35.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gapped up nearly 1 point back to Thursday’s 150-26 high, and then spiked up 1-1/2 points on the Employment report. A reaction down to 151-00 was recovered entirely, now having potential for extending up to 153-04 so long as 151-05 were to hold any test as support.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite meeting and holding the 86.00 target Thursday, Friday’s open gapped down to 83.39 and probed fresh lows intraday down to 82.29. The close was still overlapping the opening print, so intraday sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Gapping open Monday back above 85.00-86.00 would form a temporary Island Reversal. Otherwise, at least a probe under Friday’s low is likely Monday.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s setup had potential to form a bottom, but required closing Friday above 2.50. Instead, the open gapped down under the 2.39 prior lows and extended lower to 2.32. Immediately recovering 2.39 Monday could extend up to 2.50, but there is otherwise no active pattern.
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