Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The Euro’s chart since last Friday looks eerily similar to S&Ps recent consolidation that resolved down. Sharply.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down was retraced back up to the critical 82.35 level that had held Wednesday’s drop as support. The afternoon’s reaction down was contained within the morning’s range. Recovering the 82.35 interim high would trigger a rally targeting last Friday’s 83.39 opening gap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The past week’s pattern looks eerily familiar, like the S&P chart through its last corrective phase. A week-long rally through Thursday’s highs culminated in a gap up. The gap up was retraced entirely intraday, in time for the open’s gap up to be recovered. Rather than let the buying pressure remain pent-up, it has been expended already. Closing Friday under Thursday’s 1.2540 low would seal a top.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s fulfillment of the 1635.00-1642.00 target was likely to retest the prior range at 1611.00-1624.00. Bernanke’s testimony Thursday triggered a reaction that leap-frogged over the prior range, and through it down to 1579.40. So long as bounces were to hold 1596.00 resistance, a close under 1574.00 would next target 1553.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Silver was trading positive overnight while Gold began turning negative. But it couldn’t escape the vacuum below that was created by Bernanke’s testimony Thursday. Closing back under 28.75 undermined the 30.00-30.35 target, but there remains an attraction to 29.30 that could help another rally to begin.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s relatively narrow range seemed oblivious to Bernanke’s testimony, Gold’s plunge, and the market’s surge. So, 148-16 support seems fairly strong. But a rally to 153-04 would not be signaled until recovering above 149-06 and 149-16.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday repeated Wednesday’s test of 86.00 resistance. Each was retraced down to 84.65, the second time from above 87.00. Back under 84.00 would target a retest of 81.25. But now a close above 86.00 would have potential to 89.50.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) While Wednesday’s one success had been holding 2.40 support, that was Thursday’s one failure. The opening tick broke under it, and the balance of the session trended down to fresh lows at 2.26. A second consecutive lower close would all but require new trend lows. But avoiding a lower close Friday — and closing above 2.37-2.39 Friday or Monday — would signal that a correction had ended.
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