Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond finally reacted up from its ongoing tests of support. But even that reaction up was muted, relative to its objective. The pessimism suggests a bigger upleg is still coming.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s close under 82.35 now puts into play a test of 81.40, which was attacked to 81.88. A bounce could test 82.15 without beginning to signal sellers losing traction.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s fresh high close has put into play a test of 1.2760, which would remain in-play so long as 1.2600 were to hold as support, and preferably with confirmation Monday from a second consecutive higher close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A morning probe above 1626.00 resistance tested 1635.00. That was the lower-end of the 1635.001642.00 target met the prior week. Its test wasn’t rejected, but the morning’s high held while negative territory was avoided. This “ineffectual optimism” isn’t itself a sell signal, not without breaking back under 1608.00-1610.00. But it does require the rally to extend higher Monday, which would likely test 1645.00 without delay, unless the top is already in.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap up quickly peaked for the day. The balance of the session ranged narrowly around unchanged, resisted by 28.75. Above 29.00 could trigger a test of 30.00-30.35, but under 28.15 would target new lows under 26.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Finally, the tests of 148-18 support have reacted up to test 150-06. Or, at least to attack it within 5 ticks. There was plenty of time remaining to actually probe it, so the “ineffectual pessimism” suggests it will be exceeded meaningfully, and presumably targeting fresh highs at 153-04.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s choppy ranging around unchanged held 84.00 resistance, keeping alive the 81.25 target. And a second consecutive higher close was avoided, so 86.65 was not put into play.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s surge through the 2.32 buy signal to its 2.50 target extended higher only overnight, but not intraday Friday. The potential to 2.83 remains intact so long as pullbacks were to hold 2.38.
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