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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s gap up on Greece’s election results almost immediately fulfilled the precise target that was put into play last week. Its reaction down confirmed that a lot of buying pressure was satisfied, and also suggested that the rally was only a detour.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 81.40 target was met to 81.43 at Sunday night’s open. Its reaction up recovered enough to gap up at Monday’s open and then test 82.36. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would signal momentum reversing up to retest the highs.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.2760 target was met within minutes of Sunday night’s open (to only 1.2759). It was reversed so substantially that Monday’s open gapped down under Friday’s 1.2640 close. The session trended down to 1.2567. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would signal momentum reversing back down to the lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The immediate reaction to Greece’s results was a tumble to 1607.00. A recovery to the 1631.00 area filled the gap back to Friday’s close, but gained no traction for the effort. This follows Friday’s “ineffectual optimism,” so resuming the all but requires extending higher without delay Tuesday.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down to 28.25 was recovered to fill the gap back to Friday’s close in the 28.75 area. Buyers gained no traction for the effort.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Sunday night’s open gapped down to test 148-12, but a recovery probed Friday’s high up to 150-09, fulfilling the 150-06 minimum objective. The close was essentially unchanged, but closing Tuesday above 150-08 would trigger a rally with potential to 153-04.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The Euro’s surge on Greece’s results triggered a gap up Sunday night in Crude Oil, testing 85.60. The Euro’s tumble cut both ways, sending Crude back down to 82.04. Friday’s 84.00 close was not recovered, and the 81.25 target was left outstanding.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s open firmed and the balance of the session trended up to test 2.64. A second consecutive higher close would confirm that 2.83 is in-play.

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