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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 19, 2012 - 3:50 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight How frustrating is Natural Gas. Advancing sharply higher over several days, without ever confirming a buy signal. The rally can’t afford to hesitate recovering from Tuesday’s pullback, not without potentially resuming the previous decline.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday did not offer a second consecutive higher close that might have confirmed Monday’s recovery attempt. The open gapped down under Monday’s 82.08 intraday low and extended sharply lower to 81.39. Unless 81.70 were recovered Wednesday, this leg would target 81.10, if not also 80.65.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s 1.2630 intraday high instead of dropping to confirm momentum reversing down. Closing back under 1.2640 may be the only way to avoid extending higher to 1.2880, if not also 1.3000.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A probe above 1631.00 was retraced into Tuesday’s open, and the balance of the session slid to 1618.00. Not immediately resuming the rally may have ended it. Closing Wednesday under 1616.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Closing above 1631.00 resistance would be the first step to resuming the rally.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Ranging Tuesday from 28.75 down to 28.25 was only noise. The pattern’s resolution has become very unpredictable.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s dip to 148-22 recovered to close the day testing 149-00. That’s hardly a close above 150-08, which would have triggered a new rally leg underway. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Brief overnight weakness down to 82.30 was recovered into Tuesday’s open to test 84.00 resistance, which continued to hold, maintaining the 81.25 objective.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s rally extended only slightly higher overnight to 2.67. But Tuesday’s session only trended down to 2.50 support. Still no confirmation of a durable rally underway, since still no second consecutive higher close. But its potential remains alive  so long as 2.50 holds as support.

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Posted in Daily Spot