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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 21, 2012 - 4:33 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies may be turning a corner. Gold and Crude Oil are getting run over in the process.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Sellers had failed to gain traction Wednesday by holding prior lows, but buyers failed to gain traction by not closing above 81.70. That was rectified Thursday. The next higher attraction is 83.00, and then 83.77, so long as 82.15 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Closing under 1.2640 Thursday did what Wednesday did not, signal that sellers were gaining traction. Closing next under 1.2490 would confirm 1.2324 is in-play.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1616.50 sell signal triggered Wednesday, but not until after already having dipped to 1590.50. Nevertheless, the sell signal was immediately productive by extending down to fresh lows Thursday under 1565.00. So long as 1572.50 isn’t recovered on a closing basis, 1550.00 and potentially 1532.00 area in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having neutralized the attraction above by filling the gap back to close Wednesday, the pattern extended down sharply Thursday to test new lows. So long as bounces were to hold 27.30-27.50 as resistance, the drop is targeting 26.64 and 25.45.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Some “flight-to-quality.” While more than 1 point was added intraday to test 149-18 resistance, the close backed off to avoid triggering a buy signal. If Thursday’s stock market decline couldn’t finally trigger it, I’m not sure what could, especially with no econ reports due Friday. Regardless, there is no other active signal.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite meeting and holding its target Wednesday, no buy signal triggered. The drop extended down sharply $3-1/2 Thursday to 78.05. Being a second consecutive lower close, 77.77 and 75.40 are now in-play so long as 82.05 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Two intraday dips had held 2.50 support, but Thursday’s reaction up on EIA held the 2.62 prior highs. Its break on Friday would target at least 2.83, closing under 2.50 would cast much doubt on the recovery’s potential.

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Posted in Daily Spot