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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 25, 2012 - 2:34 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Trash-talking the Euro has reached Olympic proportion. Again. But Monday’s gap down never really extended lower intraday. Almost any delay in extended down could be bullish.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday had not confirmed Thursday’s breakout, but it wasn’t a sell signal. Monday’s open gapped up to test Friday’s 82.65 high, but only ranged narrowly around it intraday. Hesitating the rally effort any further would be likely at least to test 82.15 support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s 1.2560 close was not optimal confirmation to extending Thursday’s break lower. Perhaps that’s why Monday’s opening gap down to 1.2495 did not extend much lower intraday, and then only temporarily. Tuesday’s open must close lower to avoid a at least a corrective bounce back to 1.2610.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s post-close action had extended its intraday bounce to test 1572.50. The bounce extended higher Monday to test 1584.00. It was probed up to 1589.00 while RSIs diverged negatively. Back under 1576.00 would trigger a retest of last week’s 1560.00 lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s steep rally from Friday’s 26.65 close tested 27.30-27.50 resistance, whose recovery could return quickly to 30.00-30.35, so long as 27.10 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Another stock market sell-off Monday, opening under Thursday’s lows, and still the long bond could only attack 149-18. The gap back to Thursday’s 149-07 close was filled, so there is no bearish reason to probe any higher. Closing above 149-18 would still get a benefit of the doubt for launching a rally.

Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s drop Friday back up to 80.15, breaking back under 79.35 would resume the decline. Monday’s open gapped under it and extended down to 78.00. At least one more lower close remains likely.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Despite not clearly triggering 2.62 Friday to put into play 2.83, Monday’s open gapped up to test 2.73. Now 2.62 must hold as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

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Posted in Daily Spot