Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Currencies like the Euro had been suggesting their sellers were weakening. Thursday’s fresh low is trying to suggest otherwise. That, or it is trapping shorts, so that almost any strength Friday can trigger a steep and substantial surge into Monday’s open.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Three consecutive sessions of ranging relatively narrowly around last Friday’s 82.65 high indicated that buyers were tired, and probably needing a corrective dip to refuel. The rally is trying to resume, anyway. Thursday’s open gapped up and extended higher to 83.06. Gapping open under 82.75 would be likely to trend down sharply. This bounce could otherwise extend up to 83.77.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Three consecutive sessions of ranging relatively narrowly off of Monday’s gap down indicated that sellers were tired, and probably needing a corrective dip to refuel. The drop is trying to resume, anyway. Thursday’s open gapped down and extended lower to attack 1.2425. Gapping up Friday above 1.2470 would be likely to trend up sharply. The drop could otherwise extend down to 1.2325.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s bounce did not extend any higher, let alone trigger a reversal up. Thursday’s open gapped down through 1570.00 and extended down sharply to new lows at 1547.60. A second consecutive lower close could once again trigger a much bigger downleg underway. But having avoided one consecutive confirmation Wednesday, Friday is less likely to confirm Thursday’s new low.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Recovering 27.05 would have avoided entering a much larger decline. The drop only extended, down to 26.07. Closing above 26.45 would suggest the break had failed anyway, targeting 27.05 and 27.50.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))Without refueling buyers any further after all, Thursday’s open gapped up sharply to 149-18, and then extended higher intraday to test 150-00. A second consecutive higher close would launch a new rally leg. Otherwise, almost any close back under 149-18 would be bearish.
Crude Oil AUG Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s break higher to attack 81.00 from its recently formed Symmetrical Triangle wasted little time unwinding Thursday. A session-long slide probed under last week’s lows to 77.28. As important is that its new low close fulfilled a requirement. That’s not a buy signal, and the drop can extend to 76.25 or lower before another recovery attempt.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The rally’s 2.83 target was tested at Thursday’s open, but its resistance held, as a consolidation would still be appropriate.
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