Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Monday’s stock market probed into negative territory, but it was hardly a sell-off. So, the long-bond’s 2-point surge was not from a flight-to-quality. While its recovery was expected, this pace was not. Combined with it not being driven by a fear, a rally is likely to be obvious shortly.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s gap up and narrow intraday range suggests that Friday’s corrective dip has ended. It was an “inside day,” so momentum did not reverse up, making the near-term likely to range sideways.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s pullback probed its 1.2645 limit down to 1.2578. Sideways ranging back up to 1.2670 is likely near-term, and trending is not.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1594.00 pullback limit was probed Sunday night, but largely recovered intraday Monday. The open’s gap from Friday’s ~1603.00 close was barely filled, reflecting enough pessimism to keep alive potential back up to 1613.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) One more higher close Monday would have confirmed a rally to 30.00-30.35 underway. The session only ranged narrowly, but sellers did not gain traction. Now closing above 27.75 would be bullish.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s 2-point rally originated from the fresh lows under 148-00 that would have allowed a more durable rally Thursday. The gap back up to Thursday’s 149-25 close was filled while testing Thursday’s high up to 150-02. The 149-18 buy signal was still being tested into Monday’s close, but closing above Monday’s high would target 153-04. Closing back under 149-00 could trigger a durable downleg under 147-22.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s $7.75 rally had room for correcting down to 82.50 that was attacked down to only 82.85 Monday morning before news from Iran triggered a spike up to 84.50. Another reaction down to 82.00 compensated for the premature surge, which was recovered almost entirely up to 83.75. Closing above 84.50 would signal a durable rally leg was underway, confirmed above 85.50.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Narrow ranging back up to 2.83 persisted through Monday.
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