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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 9, 2012 - 3:20 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s rally Monday recovered quite a bit of the reaction down from last week’s highs. Almost any higher Tuesday would trap a lot of shorts, suggesting a big rally. The rally probably can’t extend without more news like that from Iran which triggered Monday’s pop.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s dip held the 83.35 pullback limit as support to maintain the rally’s momentum targeting 83.76.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) One day after fulfilling the long-awaited retest of Jun 1’s lows, Monday’s open gapped up a little and firmed a little further from there to test the original 1.2324 target as resistance. Buyers gained no traction for the effort.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s close under 1584.00 was tested Monday by probing above it to almost 1594.00. Friday’s highs held intraday, so back under 1584.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite gapping up and firming to spend all of Monday in positive territory, 27.50 held as resistance through the close to prevent triggering a rally.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Last week’s recovery above 149-00 continued gaining traction Monday by closing above 150-06 and testing 150-23. The 153-04 target is in-play so long as 150-10 now holds as support. Meanwhile, a pullback can be absorbed down to 149-18 before signaling a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Last week’s gap down from 87.00-88.00 to 84.50 never gained traction. The drop did require closing back above 86.50 to signal the rally had resumed, and Monday’s bounce tested it to within 2 cents. Its immediate recovery Tuesday would be likely to probe last week’s highs intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s close under 2.83 was rejected by Monday’s gap up back above it. The intraday high held 2.89, which must be recovered to signal the rally has resumed. A bigger pullback otherwise has room down to 2.76.

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Posted in Daily Spot