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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 11, 2012 - 3:56 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes didn’t shake up other markets as much as it could have. Perhaps that is because so many markets were testing or attacking their near-term objectives. Watch the Dollar and the Euro for any sign of their recent trends inverting.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s failed probe of prior highs was never retraced enough for sellers to gain traction. Now Wednesday’s higher high cannot tolerate any retracement if the rally’s momentum intends to remain alive. That may be difficult since the rally’s 83.75 target was met intraday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s negative reaction to FOMC probed fresh lows. The next lower objective is under 1.2180 if Thursday and Friday do not recover to fresh highs for the week. Considering the Dollar Basket having met its objective, the moves are definitely vulnerable to inverting.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1580.00 bounce limit held a test Wednesday before the FOMC reaction attacked Tuesday’s 1564.00 post-close low. The reaction off of it was premature, suggesting that sellers are still the strong hands.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s narrow ranging avoided probing under Tuesday’s post-close low. The optimism was unproductive, suggesting that sellers are still strong hands.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The knee-jerk reaction to FOMC news blipped-up to 151-24 and back down to test 151-00 support. A positive close retains the recovery’s momentum.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s fresh low was rejected by Wednesday’s gap up re-attacked the 86.50 bounce limit. The close was still testing the 85.50 buy signal back up to 86.00, so closing Thursday above 86.50 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s close back under 2.83 was recovered Wednesday. But not immediately to reject its failure, and not yet back above 2.89 to trigger a rally.

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Posted in Daily Spot