Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Did Natural Gas finally breakout? A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm. A second consecutive higher close Thursday had better confirm, because a false breakout can react sharply in the opposite direction, and this is not a healthy place for that.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up repeated the recent pattern of reversing back down to current lows. That same pattern included not extending down to fresh lows. A break lower is still likely, but must be obvious by Friday’s open to help prevent a shallow fresh low from recovering.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Eventually, recovering from intraday dips only has the cumulative effect of chipping away at support, if none of those intraday recoveries ever recovers above a prior high. This situation has arrived, with yet another gap down Wednesday that could not even recover to unchanged levels. Closing under 1.2235-1.2255 would trigger a new downleg. Meanwhile, any firming above 1.2300 should extend sharply higher to test 1.2395.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s open probed another fresh low for the week down to 1567.20. Its reaction up peaked at a 61.8% retracement back to recent highs. It was an inside day, contained completely within the prior session’s range, so a fresh relative high above 1584.50 should extend sharply higher. The alternative to further delaying another upleg would be to resume the decline to new lows.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) No fresh high was attempted Wednesday, let along a probe above the 27.75 buy signal. The parameter remains alive.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s gap down and lower close did not extend down Wednesday. The session’s inside day only ranged narrowly sideways. The 151-18 buy signal was only attacked and not touched, so it remains intact.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s session firmed modestly throughout to fresh highs testing 90.00. The rally should start extending higher aggressively if it intends to avoid a deeper pullback to 87.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s session had finally suggested that impatient buyers were no longer involved. This allowed Wednesday’s open to surge through the 2.89 buy signal and extend higher to test 3.00. The rally remains intact so long as 2.89 holds as support, and the breakout still requires confirmation by a second consecutive higher close Thursday.
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