Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s big gap down held above the last relative low. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend in an uptrend without even signaling a trend reversal. A better low would have actually probed the prior low and recovered it intraday, but that would still be credible Tuesday for ending the pullback.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s probe of fresh highs did not gain traction, as the session ranged sideways around prior highs. It barely closed positive. A fresh high close Tuesday above 84.15 would be credible for launching a new durable rally leg. Otherwise, at least a pullback to test 83.35 support is now likely.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday morning’s price action mirrored Friday’s character as it often does, pushing price to new relative lows at 1.2075. Monday did close negative, but that followed a substantial intraday bounce up to 1.2154 that almost touched “higher prior lows.” Gapping up immediately at Tuesday’s open would be credible as a Double Bottom with prior lows. The trend otherwise remains down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s impatient buyers had narrowly prevented the session low from filling the gap back to Wednesday’s lower 1573.80 close. Monday’s consequence was an overnight dive to new relative lows at 1562.00. Intraday action trended up exclusively, but remained in negative territory, likely at least to retest Monday’s 1565.80 open below.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down to probe last week’s lows down to 26.62 did not extend down intraday. But the session-long bounce did not recover positive territory, making lower lows likely.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Stocks and the Euro falling apart overnight triggered a steep bond market rally that attacked its 153-04 target up to 153-01. And now that last week’s “lower prior highs” have been tested as support down to 152-00, a retest of Monday’s 152-28 can complete the rally so momentum would be free to reverse down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s gap down from 91.80 to 88.31 stopped short of touching last Tuesday’s 87.79 prior low. It may yet be probed intraday, but a corrective bounce up to 91.00 remains possible, if not likely — a bounce that could gain traction to resume the rally.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Last week’s breakout and confirmation helped Monday’s session to avoid some of the carnage elsewhere, and to extend up to fresh highs.
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