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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 25, 2012 - 3:41 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s successful test of its prior low Tuesday was not as impressive as Wednesday. Its deeper test reacted up higher through the close. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would be very bullish.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s unconvincing probe of fresh highs reacted down Wednesday. The open gapped down to Monday’s close, almost as if Tuesday’s session never happened. But it left outstanding a gap at Tuesday’s 84.15 that can inhibit a downleg from getting underway yet.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday fulfilled the minimum requirement for a third lower close, allowing a gap up Wednesday. Now there is gap outstanding back to Tuesday’s 1.2165 close that will inhibit a rally from beginning.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday night’s rally took price sharply higher, through both the 1584.00 bounce limit and also above prior highs to 1610.00. If not reversed down almost immediately Thursday, the bounce could test 1622.00 first.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday night’s rally circumvented the natural test of prior lows down to 26.00 that would have formed a more durable bottom. The detour could still test 27.75 before peaking.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s gap down to 152-10 from the rally’s 154-03 target — despite having tested fresh highs overnight up to 154-11 — offered further evidence that buying pressure is fulfilled. A bounce filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close, which held as resistance. Still need a close under 153-16/153-20 to signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s test of the 87.85 prior low was still shallow. It would have sufficed to launch a rally, but no buy signal was triggered before Wednesday probed a fresh low down to 86.85. Its intraday recovery back up through 89.00 is much more impressive. Closing above 90.00 would confirm the rally had resumed.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s gap down tested the rally’s 3.05 pullback limit by late-morning. The balance of the session ranged sideways with it serving as support.

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Posted in Daily Spot