Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Surprise remarks from the Eurozone had an unsurprising effect on markets overnight. More interesting is their lack of follow-through intraday. Look out for retracing Wednesday night’s moves if new extremes Thursday night or Friday were to fail.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Draghi’s remarks easily exploited Wednesday’s gap down that had not yet recovered. Thursday’s reaction extended sharply lower from 83.65 down to 83.00. That’s essentially where the session closed despite testing 82.65 intraday. Back above 83.17 would signal a retest underway of the 84.15-84.25 high.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Draghi’s remarks easily exploited Wednesday’s gap up that had not yet failed. Thursday’s reaction gapped up from 1.2170 to test the prior two weeks’ highs at 1.2300. Like Wednesday, price did not trend up intraday, inhibited by the gap back to Tuesday’s 1.2165 close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The attraction back up to 1622.00 was attacked to within $2 in reaction to Draghi’s remarks. Its test remains likely so long as 1612.00 now holds as support.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s premature bounce initially extended higher in reaction to Draghi’s remarks. But 26.75 resistance held to push price back under 27.50. Fresh lows testing 26.00 remain likely.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) It is not surprising that price was weaker amid the Dollar’s drop and the stock market’s rise. It is surprising that price was not very weak since the rally’s 153-04 target had been met and held. Wednesday’s 152-10 held a couple of tests as support, and the close was still testing 152-16 whose break would signal the rally’s momentum had ended. One more higher high cannot be discounted, like a retest of Tuesday’s overnight 153-11 high.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Fresh highs in reaction to Draghi’s remarks probed the 90.00 buy signal. The probe did not extend higher, as the balance of the session ranged sideways around 90.00. Any further delay to extending higher would be bearish.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s drop to its 3.05 pullback limit was rejected by Thursday’s gap up. And intraday dive to lower lows on EIA news was recovered to close positive. This setup is a “pivot reversal” that is likely to extend to fresh highs without delay. Not extending higher immediately would be bearish.
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