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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 31, 2012 - 3:47 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas reacted down Tuesday after the morning’s fresh high fulfilled the rally’s initial target. The timing is interesting compared to Crude Oil, which finally reacted down from testing resistance. Could both markets be getting in synch with each other to rally in unison?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s weakness did not extend down, which would have confirmed Monday’s gap up was not “ineffectual optimism.” That remains relevant Wednesday because a fresh high for the week could gain traction to extend higher. There is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s open gapped up instead of down, testing 1.2320 resistance. Monday’s gap down would be invalidated if its low were not broken through Wednesday’s close. Fresh highs Wednesday would be difficult to gain traction for extending higher.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The rally’s 1622.00 target was probed temporarily Tuesday up to 1627.50 before reversing back down to new lows for the week at 1610.00. The failure to close above 1622.00 suggests that momentum is reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s probe above 28.25 was rejected to close back under 28.00, avoiding a buy signal targeting 30.00-30.35.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s corrective bounce retracing Friday’s plunge extended higher Tuesday, but only temporarily before reversing back down into negative territory. The close was essentially testing Monday’s 151-06 high as resistance. Closing back under 150-13 would signal the decline had resumed.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Ongoing narrow ranging at 90.00 resistance finally pushed back when Tuesday dipped down to attack 87.50. Now 89.25‘s recovery should suffice to trigger a rally that initially targets 92.65-92.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Probing the rally’s 3.26 target by 2 cents Tuesday reacted down sharply to 3.16. Closing any lower would target the gap back down to Friday’s close at 3.00.

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Posted in Daily Spot