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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 1, 2012 - 3:14 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC’s policy statement roiled markets. Then markets un-roiled. Knee-jerk reactions were undone, creating a better opportunity for trending into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging suddenly surged on the FOMC news. Fresh highs were probed, and maintained through the close, indicating the bounce could extend higher into the weekend.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging above 1.2300 suddenly caved on the FOMC news, plunging back to Monday’s 1.2240 prior low. The prior low held as support, but probably only temporarily before extending the decline back to recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The reversal from Monday’s highs extended much lower Wednesday to 1598.00 even before the afternoon’s FOMC news. Lower lows down to 1595.00 were recovered back above 1598.00 so there is no new signal.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday morning’s gap down preceded the afternoon’s FOMC news. The news didn’t make matters worse, but there is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Weakness ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news had just touched the 150-13 sell signal. A spike up to 151-19 was retraced entirely almost as immediately. The sell signal remains valid.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s drop down to 87.50 from testing 90.00 resistance bounced Wednesday to test the 89.25 buy signal. It was not triggered, but any early strength above its 89.47 test would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s ranging around Tuesday’s close — including two probes into negative territory — did not gain traction either way. Weakness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report is likely to be absorbed.

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Posted in Daily Spot