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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 2, 2012 - 3:45 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight As if reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC policy wasn’t volatile enough, reaction to ECB policy was only more so. But existing trending remained intact, as the Euro and Gold extended their recent declines.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap down and spike to fresh lows was retraced entirely to another positive close, further confirming the recovery back to recent highs is underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Recent toppiness couldn’t avoid an initially favorable reaction to Thursday morning’s headlines. But it was absorbed, rejected, and reversed down sharply as the drop targeting recent lows extended.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s post-close retest of the morning’s low had held. Thursday morning’s surge on news was absorbed to probe back under Wednesday morning’s low to 1583.00. Closing under 1584.00 Friday would confirm the trend is down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s initial surge held a quick test of 27.75 resistance before reversing back down to fresh lows. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s closing test of the 150-13 sell signal only produced a spike down to 149-16 on Thursday morning’s news. It recovered sharply through the morning to 152-04. Closing under 151-20 now makes 150-26 critical support whose break could renew the decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap down to test 87.00 spent the day ranging around Tuesday’s 87.50 low. Closing above 89.50 is still the minimum buy signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Weakness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report was not absorbed. At least, not yet. And not from anywhere near this week’s high. The reaction down from the rally’s 3.26 target is now testing 2.91. Closing back above 3.05 would trigger a new rally leg.

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Posted in Daily Spot