Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Trending Thursday night was enhanced by reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Many instances of Thursday’s intraday trending were retraced or even reversed. And many of those instances had only delayed new trending efforts. Ultimately, the long bond resumed its decline while Crude Oil resumed its rally.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s recovery was retraced almost entirely Friday. Ultimately, it was an “inside day,” trending downward, which is potentially bullish. Meanwhile, retracing back to the prior week’s low has all but assured a probe under Thursday’s low before bottoming.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s rejection of its initial surge helped to confirm the pattern’s toppiness. It did not prevent Friday’s surge from retesting Thursday’s highs. The “inside day” did not gain traction, but may now probe a fresh high unless and until 1.2320 support were broken.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Recovering Wednesday afternoon’s 1609.00 high would have trapped interim sellers to fuel a durable rally. Friday’s $21 rally expended a lot of buying pressure only to peak upon testing 1609.00. Immediate strength Monday may be compelling for extending higher, but beware if not maintained on a closing basis. Closing under 1584.00 would confirm the trend has reversed down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s surge filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, then dipped low enough to close back at 27.75. It’s not necessarily bullish, but immediate strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday, potentially putting into play 30.00-30.35.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s open gapped down to the 150-26 sell signal and extended down sharply to touch the prior Friday’s 149-08 low. That’s a lot of optimism to appear suddenly and prevent so much intraday momentum from piercing a prior low. Not likely. The drop remains intact so long as 150-00 now holds as resistance.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Apparently, Friday’s NFP was finally the data set for which the week’s consolidation had been waiting. Gapping back up above 88.30 and trending sharply higher intraday closed easily above 89.50 testing 91.75 to signal a rally underway targeting at least 93.20.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s plunge to test 2.91 was not extended Friday. It was probed pre-open down to 2.84, and post-open in the morning and afternoon down to 2.87. But it was likely only noise. Regardless, closing above 3.05 is the minimum requirement to signal momentum having reversed back up to retest the rally’s 3.26 target.
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