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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 7, 2012 - 3:50 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond broke to new lows Tuesday, further confirming a major top is forming.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down probed slightly under Monday’s low, and later recovered to almost fill the opening gap. Ranging exclusively in negative territory almost qualifies as “ineffectual pessimism,” which would be no longer ineffectual if no rally has been launched by noon Wednesday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up probed slightly above Monday’s high, and later dipped to almost fill the opening gap. Ranging exclusively in positive territory almost qualifies as “ineffectual optimism, which would be no longer ineffectual if no downleg has been launched by noon Wednesday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Not extending the decline Monday prevented confirming it. Back under 1602.00 would try to resume it, confirmed under 1584.00. There is otherwise room to test 1627.50 resistance before signaling a new upleg may be underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s probing above the 27.75 buy signal extended higher Tuesday to attack 28.25. The buy signal should now be confirmed and targeting 30.00-30.35. Following-through Wednesday should close above 28.300 for optimal confirmation.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s corrective bounce only attacked the original 150-13 sell signal as resistance. Tuesday’s open gapped down under Friday’s 149-08 prior low and extended down to 148-10. Any bounce here should be only temporary as the decline extends down to 147-08.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s extension above last week’s 89.50 buy signal extended even further Tuesday to probe fresh highs up to 94.42. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks were to hold 92.65, next targeting 96.15 and 98.85.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s dip to a fresh low at 2.82 was recovered to close positive at 2.90. Recovering from a probe under Friday’s low only suggested the drop was noise. Tuesday’s further recovery back above Friday’s high to test 3.00 confirmed it. A close above 3.05 is still recovered to signal a new upleg underway.

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Posted in Daily Spot