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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 8, 2012 - 3:14 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil dipped a little Wednesday. Not enough to reverse momentum down, but also not enough to complete a pullback. Perhaps a little further pause Thursday will allow Natural Gas and other energies to join more substantially if/when Crude Oil’s upleg were to resume.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s ranging in negative territory almost qualified as being “ineffectual pessimism.” Wednesday’s gap up confirmed. Closing Thursday above 82.80 should be irreversible before retesting last week’s 83.60 high

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s ranging in positive territory almost qualified as being “ineffectual optimism.” Wednesday’s gap down under both Monday and Tuesday’s lows confirmed. Closing Thursday under 1.2300 should be irrecoverable before retesting last week’s 1.2140 low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s gap down quickly recovered to spend the day ranging narrowly in positive territory, under Tuesday’s high. The open’s “warning shot across the bow” must still close under 1602.00 and 1584.00 to signal and confirm momentum having reversed down. Closing above 1627.50 would still signal a more durable rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down quickly recovered to spend the day ranging narrowly in positive territory, under Tuesday’s high. The recovery must resume almost immediately to avoid retesting Wednesday’s low, and then lower.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) An opening bounce soon failed Wednesday and resumed the decline down to 148-00, nearing the next 147-08 target.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s fresh high up to 94.42 extended only slightly higher Wednesday before reversing back down to come within a quarter of the 92.65 pullback limit, maintaining the rally’s momentum and its 96.15/98.85 targets.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although Tuesday’s recovery had confirmed Monday’s lows were only noise, it did not recover the 3.05 buy signal. Wednesday’s dip allows the buy signal to be lowered to 2.98.

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Posted in Daily Spot