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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 14, 2012 - 3:02 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold got ahead of itself after the pattern of Monday’s drop indicated a bigger drop coming Wednesday. Tuesday’s drop was already sizable. Either the pattern is even more bearish, or about to bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Further firming Tuesday still failed to gain traction for extending higher. The same parameter — immediate firming would be credible for extending up — will also apply to Wednesday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Most of Tuesday’s action came overnight. Intraday action was remarkably sanguine despite Gold’s early plunge. Regardless, the action does not suggest that 1.2300 held its test Thursday and Friday, making fresh lows likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s dip back under the ~1620.00 prior highs rewarded skepticism toward Friday’s rally. Tuesday morning’s drop fulfilled lower targets at 1595.00-1597.50 down to 1593.50. So long as 1607.50-1610.50 holds as resistance, another downleg would target 1580.00. I would start getting bullish quickly if any probe under Tuesday’s 1593.50 low Wednesday were rejected to close positive.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s narrow ranging did not alter the pattern, which has no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s “inside day” within Friday range made Thursday’s 147-10 no less likely to be retested. Tuesday’s gap down extended quickly to fulfill that retest. Not actually probing under 147-10 reflected “ineffectual optimism” that suggests the actual low will test 146-26 or 146-16..

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite having held 92.65 support again Monday, Tuesday only firmed back up toward 94.00 instead of yet launching a new rally leg. Any higher should start trending up aggressively.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s rally back up to Friday’s 2.85 high avoided printing a third new low close of the drop under 2.72. It is still required, but may be preceded by first extending the bounce up to 2.95.

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Posted in Daily Spot