Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold’s recent probes of fresh lows were seemingly rejected Wednesday by closing back in positive territory. Closing above Tuesday’s high would have been much more reliable, but any initial strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up held a test of 82.80 as resistance, to avoid signaling a much bigger rally leg underway to fresh highs. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would signal a rally underway, anyway.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s gap down confirmed that Monday’s gap up from 1.2300 did not reverse the trend back up. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the trend had reversed down, probably to retest recent lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight dive probed under Tuesday’s 1593.60 low and then recovered to probe above Tuesday afternoon’s 1606.30 high The positive close fulfills the bottoming pattern I described one day earlier. Closing above Tuesday’s high — instead of still testing it Wednesday afternoon — would have been more reliable to extend higher At least a negative close was avoided, which would have been bearish
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) If there is anything bullish about the pattern, it is that 27.75‘s test as resistance has not been rejected. But there is no active buy signal that can put into play the 30.00-30.35 target.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” made its eventual probe likely to visit 146-16. It was touched at Wednesday’s overnight low, and then exceeded intraday down to 146-01, where there is a sleeper low from late-May. Closing above 146-20 would signal bounce potential to 147-22. Closing under 145-16 would renew the decline with much lower targets.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Remarkably low recent volatility was finally shaken loose Wednesday. Continued volatility in currencies, Gold and stock indexes, and louder rumors of attacking Iran, all conspired to probe above the 94.72 prior high. It held as resistance, and there is now room down to 93.95 without the rally attempt losing traction.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s bounce delayed the requirement for an eventual third lower close under 2.72. The bounce could have extended higher before failing, but was retraced already Wednesday.
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