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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 23, 2012 - 3:36 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil came close to its target, and then reacted down. Its rally may have ended, or may be ending. And that’s interesting, because Natural Gas is trying to bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The drop’s 81.40 target was tested down to 81.22, and was still being tested at the close. A fresh low could test 81.15 as noise around 81.40. Closing back above 81.90 would signal a new upleg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The bounce’s 1.2570 target was tested up to 1.2593, but held as resistance through the close. The rally may yet extend higher, so long as 1.2425 were to hold as support. Closing under 1.2415 would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s reaction down to 1536.00 from testing 1645.00 resistance had resolved up to resume the rally. Thursday’s gap up and surge to 1677.50 may encourage another correction, this time as a retracement back to 1656.50. The next higher objectives are 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The 30.35 target was tested up to 30.79, which was still being probed at the close, leaving room for a corrective dip down to 29.80-29.85.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday had tested the 147-00 and 147-25 bounce limits, then Thursday exceeded them up up to 148-19 to make 149-00‘s test likely, too. A dip has room down to 146-26 before signaling new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Fresh highs up to 98.30 overnight were retraced before Thursday’s open, and then reacted down to 95.75 intraday. This is bearish. The 98.85 target was nearly met, and the other attraction above back to Tuesday’s opening gap was filled after Wednesday’s dip back into the prior range. Also, RSIs diverged negatively on the retest of Tuesday’s high. A second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s test of 2.85 resistance never exploited Tuesday’s recovery from its intraday dip. So, Thursday tried again. Its drop to fresh lows under 2.70 also recovered entirely intraday to end the day testing 2.80. Back above 2.85 would be likely to trend up sharply intraday and Monday.

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Posted in Daily Spot