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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 24, 2012 - 2:43 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The weekend wasn’t greeted with any bravado. Attempts to extend the week’s trending were unsuccessful, such as in Bonds and in Energies. Attempts to reverse other intra-week trends did not succeed, such as with currencies.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up to 81.75 peaked short of 81.90 whose recovery would signal the pullback had ended, and another upleg was underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap down confirmed the relevance of 1.2570, which was the corrective rally’s target met Thursday. A bounce filled the gap back to Thursday’s close, which held as resistance. The 1.2425 pullback limit was not touched.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s currency volatility had little influence after Thursday’s rally had already met significant resistance at 1677.50. The reaction down to 1665.00 still has room to test 1656.50 before suggesting it may damage potential for resuming the rally to 1700.00 and 1744.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s session only ranged narrowly supported just above the rally’s 30.00-30.35 target. A break under 29.80-29.85 would be the first sign of momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The bounce had become likely to extend further for a test of 149-00 resistance, which was tested Friday up to 149-04. Resistance held, suggesting the bounce has ended.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s rejection of its fresh highs at 98.30 did not extend down to fresh lows Friday, avoiding a second consecutive lower close that would have signaled momentum reversing down. The rally could still resume, or at least the potential to 98.85 could be fulfilled.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Yet another reaction down Friday from trying to recover 2.80-2.85, falling back to 2.71 after testing 2.88 overnight. An intraday probe above 2.85 remains likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

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Posted in Daily Spot