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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 29, 2012 - 3:19 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s narrow ranging finally broke. And it may have been a false break, preparing to reverse back to and through the highs.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down gained no traction, so it didn’t extend down any further Wednesday. And the gap back up to Monday’s close remains outstanding to attract price up and kick-start a new rally leg. Avoiding that will all but require extending sharply higher without delay Thursday.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up gained no traction, so it didn’t extend up any further Wednesday. And the gap back down to Monday’s close remains outstanding to attract price up and kick-start a new decline. Avoiding that will all but require extending sharply lower without delay Thursday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1656.50 pullback limit was finally tested Wednesday by a dip down to 1654.40. Now closing back above 1672.50 would signal the rally had resumed, next targeting 1700.00 and 1744.00. Closing under 1652.50 would target a deeper dip to 1640.50-1645.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite not yet recovering 31.00 to resume the rally, Wednesday’s dip stopped well short of 30.35. Recovering 31.00 would still be bullish for targeting 33.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s dip to 148-17 confirmed that Tuesday’s probe above 149-00 resistance to 149-19 had not gained traction. The pattern still offers no attractive parameter otherwise.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s rally to 96.50 resistance reacted down Wednesday to 94.75 on tamer Hurricane Isaac forecasts and surprisingly high IEA data. But the real surprise was how relatively shallow the pullback was compared to the otherwise bearish news. Back above 96.15-97.00 would trigger a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The potential for a third new relative lows close remains alive so long as bounces were to hold 2.72-2.74 as resistance. Closing any higher would target 2.90.

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Posted in Daily Spot