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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 7, 2012 - 3:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold met and held a major target at Friday’s high, without any recent refueling to its recent rally. Meanwhile, Crude Oil’s wild intraday range is trying to prevent its Double Top pattern from completing.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The extended narrow ranging around prior lows had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending down, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday’s break makes it likelier to fail. Closing back above 80.35 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The extended narrow ranging around prior highs had not been rejected, making the pattern likely to attempt trending up, which Friday did. Now, the extended narrow ranging that launched Friday’s break makes it likelier to fail. Touching resistance just above at 1.2820 and reversing back under 1.2740 would be likely to trade down sharply.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) An overnight retracement easily held the pullback limit to resolve up sharply on Friday’s Employment Situation report, fulfilling the 1744.00 target up to 1745.40. So long as pullbacks hold 1716.50 as support, the rally can extend further to 1770.50 and 1814.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite already having met its 33.00 target Thursday, the rally extended Friday up to 33.77, putting into play 35.40 so long as 32.95 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Potential for extending down to 148-02 reached only a 1-point loss down to 148-10 before reacting back up sharply on the Employment report. Filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 150-27 close produced another downleg back to Wednesday’s 149-05 low. Now closing under 148-27 would target 146-26.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s early bounce tested both 96.15 and 96.48, before reacting down sharply to 94.08. All of which was in-line with the bearish Double Top that was forming. But the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs at 96.74, still testing 96.15 and 96.48.Closing Monday above 97.00 would be credible for invalidating the Double Top, which otherwise remains intact.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The reaction down since fulfilling the 2.89 target has quickly retraced back to the rally’s origin. Friday’s drop was so substantial that trading was halted temporarily. Its 2.66 low is unlikely to recover immediately, and there is currently no attractive setup.

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Posted in Daily Spot