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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 11, 2012 - 3:40 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious Metals continued to consolidate their recent gains — neither rejecting them, nor extending them. That’s the first half of a bearish setup that would trigger by rejecting a new intraday high through Wednesday’s close. Not rejecting a new intraday high Wednesday would get every benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down to fresh lows extended lower intraday, preventing the potential bottoming pattern from ever signaling. Now a durable rally leg must recover 80.35 before being confirmed.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up to fresh high extended higher intraday, preventing the potential topping pattern from ever signaling. Now pullbacks have down to 1.2750 without the rally losing traction, and down to 1.2700 without signaling a durable downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday further consolidated Friday’s 1744.00 target. Since two days of attacking the 1727.00 pullback limit have not resumed the rally, the pullback may need to test 1716.70 first. That’s the bullish scenario. The bearish scenario would first test 1760.00-1770.00 and then close back under 1744.00 to seal a top.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday further consolidated last week’s rally. A pullback to 32.95 may be needed before extending higher to the 35.40 target.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The decline tried extending without hesitation Tuesday, but the session only ranged choppily around Monday’s close. Extending down immediately Wednesday would still be credible for resuming the decline, or else a bigger correction would all but assured (if not already underway).

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s probing above 97.00 behaved more as noise than as a breakout. But 99.15 is next in-play so long as 96.15 were to hold as support.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s open didn’t skip a beat in extending Monday’s recovery.sharply higher to touch 3.00. Holding 2.94 as support would keep alive this leg’s 3.08 target.

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Posted in Daily Spot