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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 18, 2012 - 3:02 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight That rumor about the administration releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) had a big immediate effect on Crude Oil Monday, a lot of which was recovered before the close. So, if the pattern is at all bullish, then why did Tuesday’s session nearly retest Monday’s lows?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up firmed throughout the day, peaking pessimistically short of fully filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Any early aggressive strength Wednesday would be credible for trending sharply higher intraday. Otherwise, almost any delay in rallying Wednesday would be vulnerable to attacking this week’s lows.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down remained under pressure throughout the day, but never really extended or recovered, leaving no new signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday night’s continued probing under 1760.00 blipped-down momentarily to test the 1754.00 support. Despite its substantial reaction up probing 1770.00, the balance of the session only ranged sideways. Any immediate rally effort would be credible for resuming the rally next targeting 1214.00. Any delay in resuming the rally would suggest a bigger drop down to 1740.00 underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s surge to fresh highs above 35.00 reacted back down under prior highs, but the session remained in positive territory to prevent sellers from gaining traction, and to keep alive potential up to 35.40.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Despite gapping up Wednesday, the balance of the session only ranged sideways, which still suggests that a fresh low is needed before a meaningful upleg can begin.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The reaction up from Monday’s sudden plunge on SPR rumors extended overnight to test 97.25. But Tuesday’s session only softened to within 50 cents of Monday’s 95.65 low. Closing under 94.80 would likely trigger a more substantial downleg. Closing above 97.00 would more likely attack 100.00 again.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s extension of Friday’s drop only extended more deeply Tuesday. No buy signal would be credible on Wednesday.

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Posted in Daily Spot