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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 19, 2012 - 3:18 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s failure to recover Tuesday helped to confirm the Double Top pattern was taking control. Wednesday’s $4 drop to fresh lows confirmed, too.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s early aggressive strength should have been credible for extending sharply higher intraday. But there was no post-open buying, and a quick reversal back into negative territory eventually fell to Tuesday’s lows. Now a recovery above 79.40 would be likely to extend sharply higher intraday. Fresh lows could extend to new lows for the trend.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s opening dip almost immediately bottomed and began reversing up into positive territory. Tuesday’s intraday highs held as resistance, stopping pessimistically short of ever touching Monday’s range, still being vulnerable to touching fresh highs 1.3200 above.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s recovery back above 1770.00 from Monday’s dive under 1760.00 did not extend higher Wednesday. Not a problem. Not if Thursday does close at fresh highs, which would resume the rally targeting 1814.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A rogue dive attacked support, but recovered back into positive territory, maintaining potential for extending to the 35.40 target

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s initial strength was retraced entirely to back under Tuesday’s highs. This should clear the way for a drop to fresh lows under 146-00 on whatever catalyst (Thursday’s econ calendar is pretty dangerous), where there will be potential to launch a better bounce to above 150-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s shallow temporary bounce kept alive the bearish Double Top pattern. Wednesday’s $4 tumble confirms it. Closing above 93.00 would rob sellers of their traction for a bigger bounce up to 95.50. But otherwise 87.00 and 85.00 are targeted.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s extension of the decline signaled that no buy signal would be valid Wednesday. Wednesday’s gap up to 2.85 was retraced entirely back down to Tuesday’s 2.74 lows. Now a buy signal would be triggered back above 2.83.

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Posted in Daily Spot