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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 20, 2012 - 3:20 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond had signaled already that this week’s bounce was temporary. Thursday’s action heightens the pattern’s vulnerability to reversing down. So, it’s interesting that no economic reports are scheduled before the weekend.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s gap up soon peaked. Its retracement held 79.40 support, so its test Friday could be the second part of a two-day peak, in place of a traditional one-day pattern that would have rejected the fresh high intraday..

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s gap down did not extend lower any more so than did Wednesday’s gap down. But Thursday’s session remained under pressure throughout. RSIs diverged positively into session lows, so fresh highs above 1.3200 would be triggered back above 1.3020.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday morning’s dive back under 1760.00 was recovered to back above 1770.00 — almost. Friday must maintain a breakout above the current consolidation range, or else the pattern will become very top-heavy, very quickly.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday morning’s momentary dive to 34.12 was retraced entirely back into positive territory. But what seems like strength will become weakness if Friday does not exploit the recovery by producing a fresh high close above 35.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s clsoe back at/under Tuesday’s high robbed the bounce of its momentum. It did not signal momentum reversing down. So, Thursday’s gap up was doomed to failure, and it retraced entirely. Now closing under 146-06 would trigger a drop targeting new lows under 144-10, and bounces meanwhile should hold 147-10.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Having slid recently so substantially, Thursday’s session only ranged narrowly. The 93.00 bounce limit was never attacked, let alone touched.At least 89.75 should be touched, and its break would confirm that 87.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap up into a narrowly ranging flat session offered no new directional clues. There was no requirement to reject or extend Wednesday’s reversal. It is still too soon in the pattern to calculate a lower buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot