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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 21, 2012 - 3:13 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Precious Metals needed to resume their rallies without delay Friday. Both Silver and Gold did. Apparently, only one was serious about it.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap down extended just enough to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s 79.10 close. That’s just optimistic enough to suggest a durable rally leg has yet to form.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap up firmed a little before ranging sideways through the day, stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1.3080 close. Any early weakness Monday could extend back to 1.3110 and 1.3200.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s extra dip required the rally to resume immediately Friday, if at all. It did, gapping above prior highs to probe fresh highs up to 1790.00 intraday. Almost all of which was retraced by an afternoon plunge back to Thursday’s late 1772.00 highs. The same requirement applies to Monday as it did to Friday, which is to rally without delay or else begin a downleg.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s extra dip required the rally to resume immediately Friday, if at all. It did, gapping above prior highs to probe fresh highs up to 35.26 intraday. All of it was retraced by an afternoon plunge into negative territory down to 34.37. The session recovered to unchanged levels, facing the same requirement Monday as it did Friday, to rally without delay or else begin a downleg.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s early weakness held its 146-06 support and bounced to attack Thursday’s 147-06 opening gap within 2 ticks. Back under 146-06 would still trigger a downleg targeting fresh lows under 144-10.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s gap up soon settled back to consolidate at the 93.00 bounce limit. Closing Monday above Friday’s 93.85 high would rob the decline of its traction. Otherwise, 89.75 and 87.00 remain targeted next.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday morning’s rally was retraced 61.8% intraday. Closing above its 2.90 high Monday would trigger a new upleg targeting 3.25.

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Posted in Daily Spot