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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 28, 2012 - 3:06 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold on Friday didn’t extend Thursday’s recovery attempt, confirming suspicions. But not falling all almost immediately Monday would be able to extend higher.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s reversal extended down initially overnight to 78.44, but that was all retraced overnight and reversed intraday to probe recent highs up to 80.09. Back under 79.78 would once again trigger another downleg targeting 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s pivot reversal pattern initially extended higher overnight up to 1.2971. Its reversal through the morning attacked Thursday’s prior lows down to 1.2850. A fresh low will be difficult to avoid, but any hesitation at extending down should soon find a more substantial upleg forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s rally initially firmed overnight to test 1786.00. Its reaction down held a test of 1770.00 support, whose break would confirm the recovery attempt had failed. The recovery is suspicious simply for not extending higher Friday, and any more selling pressure would be credible for another downleg targeting 1727.00 and 1717.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) No second consecutive higher close Friday meant Thursday’s recovery attempt was not confirmed. Extending above 35.00 Monday would get a benefit of the doubt for resuming the rally, confirmed above 35.40 and targeting 36.75. There is no other active signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s inside day made the second consecutive such setup, following the Tuesday-Wednesday set. New highs are not attracting sponsorship, but reversing down first would be likely to recover. Probing and rejecting another fresh high above 150-00 would be better able to extend down.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s narrow ranging didn’t reject Thursday’s bounce, or confirm that the 91.20 bounce limit ultimately held. But neither was Thursday’s bounce extended, making a retest of the low or lower still likely.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Probing fresh highs Friday makes the rally likely to extend further to 3.40 on the way to 3.58 and 3.75.

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Posted in Daily Spot